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Special Issue
通膨來臨？
讓人想起 1970 年代
薩繆爾森是凱因斯的信徒，傅利曼則開創了貨幣學派，兩人對於1970年代至1980年代初的通
膨從何而來，有不同的詮釋。而我們目前的物價上漲，就跟當年的狀況有許多相似之處。
撰文：David Stinson孫維德
年夏天，記者尼可拉斯 ˙ 瓦普夏（Nicholas 釋。而我們目前的物價上漲，就跟當年的狀
今 Wapshott）出了一本很符合時事的書《薩 況有許多相似之處。
繆爾森 vs. 傅利曼》（Samuelson Friedman）， 貨幣學派認為，之所以會有通膨，只是因
簡述兩位重量級經濟學家之間長達數年的學 為央行印了太多貨幣而已。但薩繆爾森認為沒
術辯論。薩繆爾森是凱因斯的信徒，傅利曼 這麼簡單，物價上漲是供給面因素造成的，也
則開創了貨幣學派，兩人對於 1970 年代至 就是成本增加造成供給不足。貨幣學派的說法
1980 年代初的通膨從何而來，有不同的詮 很直觀，比較好推廣，所以在政治上贏了。
Current Inflation Debate Stands in the Shadow of
the 1970s
The former from a more traditional Keynesian perspective, and the latter the pioneer of
monetarism. The setting of this rivalry was the inflation of the 1970s in the early 1980s,
a period which forms the background for today’s rising prices.
his summer, the journalist Nicholas Wapshott 1980s, a period which forms the background for
Treleased a timely book entitled Samuelson today’s rising prices.
Friedman outlining a long-running intellectual debate Monetarism offered a simple and intuitive
between two heavyweight economists – the former demand-pull explanation: the central bank was
from a more traditional Keynesian perspective, and creating too much money. The alternative, more
the latter the pioneer of monetarism. The setting of nuanced perspective is cost-push, or supply side. In
this rivalry was the inflation of the 1970s in the early political terms, the former explanation decisively won
74 台灣銀行家2022.2月號
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