Page 77 - NO.146銀行家雜誌

但支持需求面理論的人認為，物價之所 不過幾乎可以肯定的是，只要知道物
以上漲，是因為各國政府為 了 因 應 疫 情 ， 紛 價 上 漲 是 什麼 引起 的 ， 聯 準 會 2 0 2 2 年 就
紛推出前所未有的刺激措施和貨幣擴張政 會提高利率，只不過調高之路想必會充滿
策。當然，這有點難以解釋為什麼金融市 曲折。Miller Lending Group的老闆Gordon
場預期通膨很低，物價卻漲得這麼快；但原 Miller在2021年11月投書《華盛頓郵報》表

因可能跟聯準會（F e d）持續全面干預市場 示，「市場希望推高利率，聯準會則認為通
有關。資產價格飆升以及人們對疫情的恐 膨只是暫時的，短期內暫時不需要升息。在
懼，可能引發所謂的「大離職浪潮」（Great 兩者拔河的過程中，應該就會出現波動。」
Resignation），而在全球各地都以各種方式 （不過，雖然他這麼說，聯準會後來倒是宣
限制外出之後，退休人數激增，更使這個趨 布不再使用「暫時」一詞。）無論如何，光
勢雪上加霜。 靠升息還是不可能逆轉通膨趨勢。
另一方面，聯準會正在干預房市，每個 那麼說到整體經濟，爭議之處已經不
月購買400億美元的房貸證券，照理來說可 是過去的通膨從何而來，而是通膨未來要往
能會進一步壓低房屋融資成本。這顯示物價 哪裡走。無論聯準會決定何時升息，關鍵都

上漲的原因除了需求增加以外，也包括資本 在於這樣的升息宣言能不能有公信力，會不
市場本身並不中立。 會引發更大危機。這件事的成敗影響極為龐

time, real GDP is growing at a rapid clip of 5.5%, persist for up to several years, this theory ultimately
resulting in nominal GDP (NGDP) growth (the sum of assets that inflation could return to its original level,
the two) at a remarkable 12%. and thus considers it to be transitory. This situation
Nevertheless, as of December, 30-year alone would be insufficient to cause a wage-price

mortgages are still available at 3%. As a rule of thumb, spiral.
the fundamental value of investments generally tends Advocates of the alternative demand-pull
to track NGDP growth, so extrapolating out, borrowers explanation point to the unprecedented stimulus
would earn 9% returns simply by owning a house. measures and monetary expansion taken in response
There is clearly some form of mismatch among these to the crisis. The possibility of accelerating price
numbers. The housing market is a useful test to levels is somewhat difficult to square with financial
examine which of these theories might be best applied market expectations of such low inflation, but there
to the present. is a one complicating factor: the extensive continuing
The short-term debate is between the cost-push intervention in the market by the Fed. Retirements

and demand-pull theories. COVID has undoubtedly have surged since the lockdowns, helping fuel a trend
caused havoc in supply chains; its initial impact was which has dubbed the “Great Resignation” – which
on the supply side. Even though the disruptions could may be attributed to some combination of surging

台灣銀行家2022.2月號 77

1 5% JOEE