Page 78 - NO.146銀行家雜誌

特別報導
Special Issue

大，我們在未來10年不僅得面對債務問題， Fratantoni說，「公寓空屋率下降，加上
也得面對通膨問題。 待售庫存屋不足，造成住宅價格面臨上漲壓
力」。美國住宅市場在金融危機之後，就一直
房屋也是一種消費支出 處於這種短缺，而且疫情引發的新一波遷徙，
讓住宅短缺得更厲害。根據目前的分區法規，

目前房地產市場的信貸水準依然很嚴， 就業強勁的地區通常都無法合法興建新的住
幾乎沒有泡沫化的跡象，所以房地產的飆 宅，許多研究指出，這對GDP的影響可能已高達
漲，可能因為是房屋短缺。美國抵押貸款銀 數兆美元。
行協會（Mortgage Bankers Association）首席 貨 幣 分 析通常不會思考房地產市 場 對
經濟學家Mike Fratantoni指出，居住消費幾乎 實體經濟造成哪些影響，但住宅政策很特
占了消費者物價指數的三分之一，通膨對房 別，無論哪一種價格理論都可以採用。住
價的影響，可能不如房價對物價的影響。 宅問題跟目前的供給鏈問題無關，但平價

asset prices and fear of COVID. the debate is not the source of past inflation, but

The Fed is intervening in the housing market in the course of future inflation. The multi-trillion dollar
particular, by purchasing US$ 40 billion of mortgage question is when the proper time comes – whenever
securities a month. In principle, these purchases could it is – whether the Fed is credibly able to raise rates
be driving down the cost of funding. Thus, not only without triggering a worse crisis. In other words,
demand factors, but also the non-neutrality of capital the question of the decade will be debt as much as
markets returns to the stage. inflation itself.
Rates will almost certainly increase in the next

year, although perhaps on an uneven path, as this Assets are also for consumption
issue works itself out. “The markets want to push
rates higher while the Fed thinks inflation is transitory In the housing market, credit standards remain
and does not require rate hikes anytime soon,” said strict, and there is little evidence of a bubble. Instead,
Gordon Miller, owner of Miller Lending Group, in the the problem could be better characterized as an
Washington Post in November. “Expect volatility while asset shortage. Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni of
we battle this tug of war.” (Since he made that remark, the Mortgage Bankers Association pointed out the
however, the Fed has announced that it would stop importance of housing within the CPI, making up
using the word “transitory”). In any case, the increase almost 1/3 of its weighting. Rather than the influence

will be far from enough to resolve this inversion on its of inflation on the housing market, the more important
own. effect may be the other way around.
Regarding the larger economy, the crux of “Shelter prices continue to face upward

78 台灣銀行家2022.2月號

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