Page 76 - NO.146銀行家雜誌

特別報導
Special Issue

但治標不治本，長期來說只造成物價上漲。 2021年11月的消費者物價指數達到6.8%，是39
當時的經濟學家可能沒有注意到這些 年來的新高：實體GDP的成長速度則為5.5%。兩
因素，根據瓦普夏的說法，當時只有海耶克 者加起來的名目GDP成長高達12%。
（Hayek）這位二線學者從基本假設，去質疑 不過至少在2021年12月，30年期的抵押貸
價格能給我們多少啟示。長期以來，海耶克 款利率仍為3%。根據以往經驗，名目GDP增長

的奧地利學派景氣循環理論一直有爭議，但 時，投資品的價值通常都會跟著漲，所以你只
明斯基保留了該學派的優點，推出了一套更 要貸款買房，就會立刻獲得9%的回報，但這顯
有說服力的理論。他認為負債的數字會上下 然表示上述的幾個數字一定有哪裡搭不起來。
循環，資產則不會，這就是所謂的「明斯基 所以到底哪個理論才能解釋當下的狀況？房地
循環」（Minskian cycles）。當然，債務是一 產市場是個很好的檢驗工具。
種準貨幣，所以明斯基循環不是在討論實體 當下的短期爭議在於，物價上漲究竟是因
經濟，而是在討論貨幣。 為成本上升，還是因為需求增加。COVID-19
打亂了供應鏈，所以一開始的衝擊顯然在供給
理論大拔河 面；但供給面理論認為，這種亂象最多只能持

續幾年，然後通膨就會回到正常水準，所以這
照各種數據看來，目前的狀況相當複雜。 種現象本身不足以造成薪資與物價螺旋上漲。

prices. At present, due to aging, the balance of savers Hayek questioned the usefulness of prices on a more
to participants in the real economy has shifted towards fundamental level. Hayek’s Austrian theory of business
the former. This factor will likely start to reverse later cycles has however long been discredited, but
this decade as retirees withdraw their funds. Minsky’s theory preserves the useful aspects of this

This explanation can also be run in reverse to theory, while offering a more vigorous explanation. To
explain the macro environment of the 70s. As the be specific, Minskian cycles are based on the liability
baby boomer generation entered the workforce and portion of the balance sheet, rather than assets.
started demanding new consumption before they had Because debt is a quasi-monetary instrument, this
the opportunity to contribute capital, the economy is still a monetary, rather than a “real” theory of the
entered a state of secular capital scarcity. The central business cycle.
bank could print money, but doing so did not alter this
fundamental shortfall, and thus only contributed to Tug of war
price increases.

Economists of the period may not have Returning to the present day, data present a
considered the influence of such factors. In quite mixed situation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Wapshott’s narrative, only the minor character of hit a 39-year high of 6.8% in November. At the same

滴滴出行不顧中國監理機關的勸
阻，逕自在紐約交易所上市，如
76 台灣銀行家2022.2月號 今卻是得不償失，付出更巨額的
代價。（圖╱路透社）

1 5% JOEE