Page 75 - NO.146銀行家雜誌

不過在2008年的金融危機之後，大家注
意到財政政策必須要能夠永續，於是嚴格的 目前出現溫和通膨現象，主要是央行以前所未有的規模在印鈔票。
（圖／達志影像）
貨幣主義就此失寵。過去10年來，各國央行
雖然都有在刺激經濟，但世界顯然處於通縮 釋時，政府就只能用非傳統的財政與貨幣政
狀態，目前之所以出現溫和通膨，是因為 策來因應。這種狀況如今眾所皆知，但其實

央行開始用前所未有的規模來印鈔票。但無 它背後暗藏一種和通膨相關的價格理論。
論是1970年代還是現在，這種長期貨幣政策 在 Two-price model中，房地產這類的資
都似乎意味著，大家在討論通膨時漏了某件 產價格很容易跟其他東西大幅脫鉤，因為人
事情。 口結構之類的因素，比央行政策更能夠影響
而海曼˙明斯基（Hyman Minsky）的理 這類資產的價格。當代的高齡化，已經讓買
論，講的就是這件事情：資產的價格。 房子儲蓄比投資實體經濟更有利。當然，幾
年之後如果退休人士開始賣房子，平衡可能
明斯基時代 就會逆轉。
這也可以解釋1970年代的總體環境，當

2008年之後，「明斯基時刻」這個詞在 時戰後嬰兒潮開始進入勞動力市場，他們希望
金融界快速竄紅，這個概念是說，當金融體 在自己能夠投入資本之前先增加消費，於是經
系崩潰的速度，高到所有均衡模型都無法解 濟就陷入長期資本短缺。這時央行印了鈔票，

the debate, due to its parsimony. A Minsky era
At the same time, strict monetarism has also After 2008, the term “Minsky moment” became
fallen out of favor since the 2008 financial crisis, which better known in financial circles. This describes a
has demonstrated the continued necessity of fiscal situation in which the financial system collapses faster
policy. For the past ten years, the world been in a clear than any equilibrium-based model could capture,
deflationary regime, despite consistent central bank forcing an unconventional fiscal and monetary
stimulation. The moderate inflation taking place now response. Behind this well known scenario, however,
has required unprecedented money creation. At the lies a deeper price theory which is also relevant in an

same time, the existence of such long-term monetary inflationary context.
regimes in the first place implies a missing element to According to the two-price model, assets like
the inflation debate, both then and now. real estate may become detached from prices in the
That element is the theories of economist Hyman general economy to an arbitrary degree. Rather than
Minsky – in particular, the fact that asset prices can central bank policy, it may be more useful to look to
never be eliminated from the discussion. other factors, like demographics, to explain these

台灣銀行家2022.2月號 75

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