Page 79 - NO.146銀行家雜誌

居住方案越多，中長期的房屋價格照理來 膨，而只要適度進行結構性改革，停滯型通
說就會越穩定。房屋價格的漲幅一旦沒那 膨也就不會到來。不過有趣的是，在1980年
麼大，就不會有那麼多老人提早退休；而 代的雷根時期，「供給面經濟學」就是根據
市場上有越多房屋，央行也就能夠使用更 這種想法一炮而紅；但它那種以為只要減稅
多種政策工具。 就可以解決一切問題的想法，很快就打了自

至於進一步控制疫情的各種方法，只要不造 己的臉，甚至被後來的小布希嘲笑為「巫毒
成經濟混亂，對經濟絕對都有益。只不過整體社 經濟學」。不過即便施政結果不佳，供給面
會的健康程度，並不會直接影響房地產價格。 改革的核心原理依然屹立不搖。
1970年代的故事給了我們不少點子， 總之，很多1970年代的思潮都值得今天
但利率下降的趨勢已經延續了數十年，即使 拿來借鏡，只要在思考的時候同時考慮當下
開始扭轉也需要一段時間。目前還沒有任何 的現實就可以。（本文作者為台灣金融研訓
跡象顯示我們已經陷入1970年代的停滯性通 院特聘外籍研究員；譯者為廖珮杏）

pressures because of the lack of for-sale inventory and It also goes without saying that any further

decreasing vacancy rates for apartments,” he said. measures to restrain COVID, without causing
This shortage has been a feature of the US housing economic disruption, would be beneficial. Public health
market since the financial crisis, exacerbated by new however does not directly impact asset prices.
migration patterns. The core problem is that due to The 1970s can provide some guidance for
zoning regulations, it is simply illegal to build suitable the current moment, but the decades-long trend of
houses in most areas with strong employment. The declining interest rates will take some time to be
impact on GDP easily reaches the scale of trillions of reversed. There is as yet no sign of the stagflation

dollars, according to multiple studies. which characterized that time. Modest structural
The real-economy aspects of the housing market reforms would help ensure that remains the case.
are not typically considered in monetary analysis, but Interestingly, this is also the conclusion of the “supply
housing is a unique example of a solution that does side economics” which became popular under the
not require choosing between these three theories of Reagan administration in the 1980s. The specific idea
prices. Housing is not related to the current supply- that tax cuts would solve everything quickly turned into
chain problems, but more affordable housing would a caricature of itself – mocked by the future president
show a commitment to price stability over the medium George Bush as “voodoo economics” – yet the
and long term. Restraining the run-up in asset prices underlying idea of supply side reforms remains sound.

would marginally prevent seniors from retiring early, Some of the intellectual currents of that time
and a greater supply of assets would also give the remain relevant today, yet many aspects must be
central bank a wider range of policy options. updated to reflect current realities.

台灣銀行家2022.2月號 79

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