Page 62 - NO.153銀行家雜誌

特別報導
Special Issue

常都會受到最大的影響。現在這些國家，則 元。國際貨幣基金（IMF）8月的報告也同樣
可能一方面被一些導致通膨問題的供給因素 顯示，全球經常帳餘額（各國出口額減去進
影響，另一方面也會被美國如何因應這些因 口額的總和，通常用來衡量全球總體經濟的
素的作法，以及之後增加的生產與投資所影 穩定度）正在增加；而且IMF認為這個數字在
響，一方面又被通膨在美國國內引發的反應 2023年還會繼續上升，直到供應鏈問題改善

所影響，因而陷入典型的通貨危機，至少斯 為止。
里蘭卡就是這樣。除此之外，目前的狀況和 斯里蘭卡在5月20日發生首次政府債務
1980、1990年代不斷發生的危機之間，有好 違約，總統拉賈帕克薩（Rajapaksa）倉皇出
幾項重要差別，其中兩個就是中國的存在， 逃。C O V I D-19疫情嚴重衝擊該國的主要外
以及目前正在進行的碳轉型。 匯來源，例如旅遊業，以及前往中東的移工
匯入款項。此外分析師也認為，斯里蘭卡有
同時承受兩種壓力 許多政策失誤，包括疫情前大幅減稅，以及
疫情後未能及時意識到外匯危機。最重要的
這些因素都導致資本大量撤出新興市 是，該國一度禁止進口合成肥料，影響了國

場。國際金融協會（IIF）7月的報告指出，投 內糧食生產。
資組合從今年3月以來持續外流5個月，創下 農業在綠色轉型過程中有一定的重要
I I F所知最久的紀錄，外流總金額達393億美 性，沒有被植物吸收的合成肥料，可能會滲

Squeezed from both sides forced to flee the country after the government
defaulted on its debt for its first time ever on May
These factors have indeed caused capital to 20. Sri Lanka had faced severe pressure on key
broadly retreat from emerging markets. A July report of sectors for foreign exchange due to COVID, including
the Institute of International Finance (IIF), a trade body tourism and remittances from labor in the Middle East.
for international financial institutions, highlighted a five- Analysts have pointed to several policy mistakes,
month trend of US$39.3 billion in portfolio outflows including large tax cuts prior to the pandemic, and
since March, the longest such record in the history of later a delay in recognizing the gravity of its foreign
the organization. An August report of the IMF similarly exchange problem. Most notably, it briefly banned
found that global current account balances (the sum of imports of synthetic fertilizer before reversing course,

national trade deficits and surpluses) is widening as a affecting domestic food production.
measure of global macroeconomic stability, and also Agriculture is an area of moderate importance
forecast that they will continue to increase into 2023 to the green transition. Synthetic fertilizer that is not
until supply conditions ease. taken up by plants may leach into the atmosphere.
Sri Lanka’s former President Rajapaksa was Pound-for-pound and over the equivalent time period

62 台灣銀行家2022.9月號

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