Page 61 - NO.153銀行家雜誌

全球儲備貨幣緊縮周期中，新興經濟體通常都會受到最大的影響，如斯里蘭卡。（圖／達志影像）

卻都健康很多，這似乎表示，在物價上漲的 權幾何平均）卻從今年年初的96飆升至8月的
同時，經濟未必會停滯。結果就讓美元的國 106。
內價格與國外價格開始分歧，通膨在國內成 美國國內經濟在通膨飆升的韌性，對
為頭條新聞，國際的美元指數（U S D o l l a r 不仰賴美國商品的新興經濟體很重要。在全
Index，美元對6個主要貿易夥伴貨幣匯率的加 球儲備貨幣緊縮的週期中， 這些經濟體通

either part alone. The resilience of the domestic US economy to

The post-2008 recovery broke this mold the inflation surge has important implications for non-
to a certain extent, as unemployment remained exporting emerging markets, the part of the world
persistently elevated while inflation was subdued. which tends to be the most affected by tightening
Now, as GDP growth and particularly employment cycles in the world’s reserve currency. They now have
remain much healthier than price indices, the US the potential to be squeezed between not only the
economy is challenging this association an inflationary same supply-side factors causing inflation in the US,
environment as well. This paradox is reflected in a but also the US response to those same factors. At
divergence between the internal and external prices least one classic currency crisis has resulted, in Sri
of the US dollar: despite headline-grabbing inflation, Lanka. At the same, several factors differentiate this

the US Dollar Index (a measure of the USD against situation from the frequent crises of the 1980’s and
several US trade partners) has surged from 96 at the 1990’s, including the role of China and the ongoing
beginning of this year to 106 in August. carbon transition.

台灣銀行家2022.9月號 61

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