Page 65 - NO.153銀行家雜誌

到了資金緊縮周期問題。各界嘲笑斯里蘭 保，也更公平。只是，I M F的立場無法直
卡的政策，也顯示總體經濟對E S G其實非常 接建議各國把補貼省下來的錢發給民眾，
重要，即使E S G倡議者表示這場危機完全不是 於是反對補貼的倡議，實質上就變成了建
ESG引起的，依然顯示這類倡議漏掉了很多現實 議緊縮。這時候，E S G投資人的角色就變
問題。這時候，另一個國家的動向會讓我們更 得很重要了。

能看出問題在哪裡。例如巴基斯坦，其在7月14 也許有些人會認為，E S G把環保跟治理
日和國際貨幣基金達成一項60億美元的 初 步 協 做好就可以，不需要承擔總體經濟穩定，
議，將進行政治上相當困難的改革，預防 但即使它的主軸是讓企業負起社會與治理
自己陷入債務危機。 的責任，當代的經濟危機依然涉及環境。
巴基斯坦和斯里蘭卡都雙雙向I M F尋求 雖然烏俄戰爭可能會讓某些非洲與中東國
紓困援助，其中一個條件就是必須同意停 家陷入糧食危機，但目前的供應面壓力依
止補貼化石燃料。補貼化石燃料會傷害環 然幾乎完全源自於石油。在能源轉型的過
境，卻能保障目前的人民福利，很多國家 程中，油氣的供應波動注定更加明顯，全
都這麼做，台灣也不例外。當然，I M F反 球經濟也會越來越不需要以油氣為核心。

對這種補貼的理由也很合理，因為窮人需 不過綠色轉型的過程中，其實農業的
要的燃料比較少，如果把補貼化石燃料的 影響不大，最多只能幫忙減少一點點溫室
錢直接換成現金發給每一個人，就會更環 氣體。主要的改變反而是在再生能源，它

crisis. Current supply-side pressures are based almost ends, yet sustainable finance taxonomies tend not to
entirely on petroleum (although some African and mention fossil fuel subsidies on a country level.
Middle Eastern countries are seeing problems with

imports of finished food products due to the war in The panda in the room
Ukraine). Volatility in hydrocarbon supply can only
become more pronounced as the energy transition Another commonality between Pakistan and
progresses and the former becomes less central to the Sri Lanka is that they had both received large loans
global economy. through China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). As with
While any marginal bit of greenhouse gas the ESG concept, this tightening cycle also marks
emission reduction helps, agriculture is mostly the first major test for China’s development lending.
a standalone item in the green transition. Green In a typical debt renegotiation program, lenders
electrification, in contrast, is a much more connected negotiate collectively to ensure that the borrower

process, which will have a diverse variety of impacts. cannot play them off of each other. Any renegotiation
By ending subsidies, countries can attack green of BRI projects takes place on a strictly bilateral basis,
energy from both the consumption and production raising fears among multilateral institutions that their

台灣銀行家2022.9月號 65

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