Page 66 - NO.153銀行家雜誌

特別報導
Special Issue

會影響到很多彼此相關的產業轉型。停止 會被借款國拿來償還中國的貸款。因此，債
化石燃料補貼，可以同時從生產和消費兩 權國組成的巴黎俱樂部（The Paris Club）將
端加速社會轉向使用再生能源，不過目前的永 中國排除在外。
續金融通常都沒有把國家級的化石燃料補貼算 真要說起來，「一帶一路」除了可能會
進去。 像美國外交官多次警告的那樣，讓發展中國

家陷入債務陷阱以外；可能也會像外交政策
房間裡的熊貓 研究所（Foreign Policy Research Institute）
Felix Chang所言，讓這些國家的外貿平衡陷
巴基斯坦與斯里蘭卡的另一個共通性， 入危機。這種計畫，會同時威脅到國家獲得
就是都靠著「一帶一路」獲得大量貸款。跟 外匯存底，和維持外匯存底的主要因素。它
前述ESG問題一樣，這次的資金緊縮周期也讓 帶來的基礎建設，會讓當地跟中國的關係
中國推出的開發中國家貸款面臨史上第一次 更緊密，而且嚴重依賴中國進口的原料，
重大考驗。在典型的債務重新談判過程中， 所以事後往往會讓該國進口更多中國的商
放貸方會集體談判，防止借款方將它們各個 品，而非用來生產商品出口給其他國家。

擊破。但一帶一路的所有債務重新談判，卻 此外，「一帶一路」相當不透明，所以有
都完全只由貸款國跟中國進行，許多其他債 些人猜測其中的很多貸款完全都是以人民
權國因此擔心，它們援助的所有資金可能都 幣處理的，根本不會經過外匯，但無論如

aid money might be simply used to pay off Chinese dependence on Chinese suppliers. Combined with
loans. The Paris Club, a group of creditor nations, the opacity of the BRI, some have speculated that
excludes China. a significant portion of its lending does not even

In fact, the BRI may not only be a “debt involve foreign exchange, remaining entirely within
trap,” as US diplomats have repeatedly warned, the renminbi ecosystem. Nevertheless, the loans
but also problematic for recipient countries’ trade are paid back in renminbi.
balance as well, according to an analysis by Felix In the bigger picture, the challenge from the
Chang of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. BRI to both aid institutions and the global ESG
Thus, it impacts both of the main factors affecting model may turn out to be relatively ephemeral.
a country’s ability to acquire and maintain foreign China’s economy is under severe pressure from
currency reserves. The infrastructure projects demographic and structural factors, and now a zero-
it produces tend to be used more for imports covid policy that will be difficult to unwind, even if the

from China than for exports to other countries, political will existed. Alongside the capital withdrawals
both because of the connections they facilitate from emerging markets, a somewhat longer-term trend
between the two countries, and also due to strong has emerged over the past two years of declining

66 台灣銀行家2022.9月號

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