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非常合理；但到目前為止，投資的結果最多 長期來看，如果中國政府繼續大力干涉
只能說是喜憂參半。中國的晶片依然完全無 經濟，很可能只會壓抑正常的私人創新，同
法國產，它在2020年總共進口了3,500億美 時養出更多家「清華紫光」。畢竟，如果國
元的半導體，總額甚至比原油還高。另一方 家打壓所有它不想培育的企業，就只會浪費
面，國家大力相挺的晶片龍頭清華紫光，則 掉大部分的社會菁英。
是在2020年11月違約了一筆13億人民幣的債 反諷的是，習近平越是想要控制中國的
券，並在2021年中瀕臨破產。如今，美國也 私人企業，反而可能越會削弱整個中國。私
正在阻止中國接觸先進半導體製程，即使紫 部門的活力越少，中國的企業就越難跟國際抗
光成功重組，未來依然困難重重。 衡，北京在世界上也就越來越沒有影響力。
到目前為止，還不能確定紫光集團的失 在過去一百年來，中國共產黨一次又一
敗會不會阻止中國繼續無效投資，畢竟中國 次地證實，它最大的敵人是自己。看來這種
的半導體產業光是在2020年一年之內就增加 傾向可能永遠都不會變。（作者為台灣金融研
ＡＤ
了22,800家，比2019年多出195%。 訓院外籍特聘研究員；譯者為廖珮杏）
local government semiconductor funds have raised an to be seen. In 2020 alone, more than 22,800 new
additional US$25 billion. Further, 40 chipmakers are semiconductor firms were set up in China, a 195%
publicly traded on the Shanghai STAR Board, China’s annual increase over 2019.
answer to the Nasdaq. During their IPOs, they raised a In the long run, heavy-handed state intervention
total of US$25.6 billion. in China’s economy will likely produce more Tsinghua
The mammoth investment makes sense given Unigroups, while discouraging healthy private sector
chipmaking’s capital-intensive nature. Yet the results innovation. If the state punishes entrepreneurial
thus far have been mixed at best. Self-sufficiency activity that falls outside narrow parameters, then
remains elusive. China spent more importing it will squander the talents of China’s best and
semiconductors (US$350 billion) than crude oil in brightest.
2020. Meanwhile, Tsinghua Unigroup, the most Ironically, Xi’s draconian controls on China’s
prominent of Beijing’s state-backed chipmakers, private sector will weaken the country in the
defaulted on an RMB 1.3 billion bond in November aggregate. A less-dynamic Chinese private sector
2020. By mid-2021 it was facing bankruptcy. Even if will produce fewer firms capable of competing
the company restructures successfully, it will struggle internationally, which will reduce Beijing’s global
in the face of U.S. ban on China’s access to advanced influence.
semiconductor technology. Over the past century, the Chinese Communist
Whether the failure of Tsinghua Unigroup Party has shown time and again that it is its own worst
eventually helps reduce wasteful spending remains enemy. Some things never change.
44 台灣銀行家2022.3月號2022.3月號
44 台灣銀行家
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