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疫情後，中國經濟沒有如預期般恢復，這是電子晶片需求未能回升且庫存周期持續的原因之一。（圖／達志影像）
存週期往往不會持續這麼長時間，但這一輪企 期待的水平，這是電子產品／晶片需求沒有回
業消耗電子產品和半導體庫存的周期已經成為 升、備貨周期持續的原因之一。
2000年以來時間最長的，截至2023年5月已有 在亞洲主要的幾個市場中，韓國去庫存壓
15個月。 力持續最長。2023年7月，韓國半導體出口下降
經過3年疫情后，在美國和歐盟經濟放緩的 幅度甚至擴大至同比-33%，同期台灣和日本為
全球背景下，中國經濟的復甦也並未達到市場 -12%。這可歸因於韓國晶片製造商在記憶體方
outbreak as manufacturers rushed to keep more inventory growth in Taiwan, Japan and South
inventories to ensure they could produce. The Korea. This indicator points to the latest destocking
irony is that the rush to secure access to chips has cycle having started as early as March 2022.
ended up into excessive stockage at a time when Although there was an improvement in the third
the demand was decelerating, especially with high quarter of last year, the situation has deteriorated
interest rates. again recently. This is somewhat surprising since
The story sounds simple, but it is hard to destocking cycles do not tend to last so long. In
measure. To that end, we have developed the fact, the current cycle in which companies run
Natixis Asia Electronics Inventory Stress Indicator, down their electronic/semiconductor inventories is
tracking the difference between shipment and the longest since 2000, with already 15 months of
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