Page 73 - NO.165銀行家雜誌
P. 73
貨幣貶值帶來通膨壓力，削減了家庭的可支配收入並減少消費支出。（圖／達志影像）
總而言之，鑒於電子和半導體等經濟關鍵 多其他亞洲製造商來說也是如此。展望未來，評
行業的去庫存時間比預期長得多，預計台灣經 估當前情況將會持續多久的一個關鍵因素是中國
濟受此影響增長將會低於去年。此外，由於新 的前景。如果中國經濟持續放緩，半導體週期似
台幣疲軟，特別是與2021年相比，消費無法成 乎不太可能很快恢復，台灣經濟也很難擺脫當前
為台灣推動經濟的備胎，而進口價格上漲帶來 的僵局。（本文作者為法國外貿銀行亞太區首
的通膨正在侵蝕家庭的購買力。對於韓國等許 席經濟學家，布魯蓋爾智庫高級研究員）
contrary, the weak NTD has brought inflationary cannot become the spare wheel of the Taiwanese
pressures, carving out Taiwanese households’ economy as a weaker NTD, especially when
disposable income. The recent additional compared with 2021, and related inflation from
weakness of the RMB will put additional pressure more expensive import prices are harming
on the NTD, which can potentially create a vicious households’ purchasing power. This is even more
circle. This is all the more so since the interest rate true for many other manufacturers in Asia, such
differential between the Fed and the Central Bank as South Korea. Down the road, China’s outlook
of Taiwan remains very elevated. holds the key when trying to estimate how long
All in all, one should expect the Taiwanese this situation will last. If the Chinese economy
economy to grow less than last year given the continues to decelerate, it seems highly unlikely
much longer than expected destocking of the key that the semiconductor cycle will recover any time
sector for the economy, namely the electronics soon and with that the Taiwanese economy leaves
and semiconductors. In addition, consumption the current impasse behind.
台灣銀行家2023.9月號 73
1 5% JOEE
