Page 30 - NO.155銀行家雜誌

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向投給共和黨，比例甚至比川普在2016年勝 執政黨，都會把國會交給反對黨。很多不滿
選時還高。至於佛羅里達州，則是民主黨幾 現狀的選民，會在期中選舉踴躍投票，表達
10年來都沒打好基層，所以從1997年以來， 自己的意見。因此打從1932年以來，在野黨
就沒拿下過該州的兩個議會。該州州長德桑 幾乎每一次都能在期中選舉拿下眾議院，只
提斯（Ron DeSantis）甚得人望，是共和黨 有1998與2002年例外。

人，也是川普的老朋友，這讓民主黨的劣勢 對執政黨來說，只要能在期中選舉拿下
更加明顯。 參議院就夠了。參議院的權力比眾議院大，
而且只要守住其中一個院，反對黨的立法能
期中選舉預測 力就相當有限。例如民主黨在2018年的期中
選舉拿下了眾議院，但參議院還在共和黨手
搖擺州應該也是今年期中選舉的關鍵。 裡，所以民主黨只能抵制共和黨的提案，卻
今年的選舉似乎正在翻轉過去的常識，有7個 無法通過自己制定的草案。
州的參議院席次紅藍未定，而且這些州過去 今年的民主黨應該也可以守住參議
都沒有明確的政黨傾向。 院（根據目前預期，兩黨的參議員人數將

到了期中選舉，美國選民通常為了懲罰 相同，屆時副總統賀錦麗就會決定投票結

by the state’s popular Republican Governor Ron Representatives in every midterm election except for
DeSantis, a longtime Trump ally. 1998 and 2002.

For the incumbent party, holding control of the
Midterm elections forecast Senate would be considered a satisfactory result in a
midterm election. Of the two chambers of Congress,
Purple states will play a decisive role in this it is the more powerful, and without control of both,
year’s midterm elections, which are shaping up to be the opposition party has limited capability to enact its
unlike most in recent memory. Of the seven toss-up legislative agenda. In 2018, the most recent midterm
states that will likely decide control of the Senate, not election, Democrats won the House but failed to wrest
one is reliably red or blue. control of the Senate from Republicans. Thus, they
Typically in midterm elections, U.S. voters had power to push back against the Republicans’

punish the party in power by handing control of agenda, but not to pass legislation of their own.
Congress to the opposition. Midterms tend to bring This year, Democrats are forecast to hold the
out unhappy but energized voters, who send a Senate – it is currently at 50-50 with Vice President
message of dissatisfaction by voting against the Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote – but lose
party of the president. To that end, since 1932, the the House. The Economist’s latest forecast shows the
opposition party has gained seats in the House of Democrats winning an average of 51.2 Senate seats

30 台灣銀行家2022.11月號

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