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              跟藍州都更接近美國中間選民的意見。                                黨最擔心的可能是明尼蘇達州，2020年拜登
                  如果俄亥俄州跟佛羅里達之後都會繼續支                           在該州僅勝出7.12%，2016年希拉蕊僅勝出
              持共和黨，那麼共和黨在2024年就有219張                           1.52%。至於共和黨可能會翻盤的則是德州，
              選舉人票基本盤，民主黨則擁有226張。如果                            2020年川普在該州僅勝出5.58%。
              民主黨拿下賓州、威斯康辛州、密西根州，                                   雖然如此，民主黨要拿下該州的機會還

              選舉人票的總數就會剛剛好跨過270張的勝                             是很渺茫。德州擁有40張選舉人票，如果民
              選門檻。從1988年至2016年，這3個州每次                          主黨成功拿下，就極有可能在2024年的總統
              總統大選都在民主黨手中。至於共和黨，則                              大選大勝，可惜自從1976年民主黨的卡特贏
              是如果照著目前的趨勢拿下北卡羅萊納州的                              下德州之後，該州在總統大選就一直都是共
              16張選舉人票，再加上喬治亞州、亞利桑那                             和黨的天下。
              州以及任何一個中西部州，就能湊滿270張而                                 對民主黨來說，這次拿下德州的機會太
              勝選。                                              小，如果想在白宮裡再待4年，最好還是集中
                  當然一切都有意外，一些原本是紅州或                            火力守住賓州、密西根州、威斯康辛州這3個
              藍州的鐵票區，很可能會翻盤。例如2020年                            屬於他們的陣地。（作者為台灣金融研訓院外                                                                    AD

              喬治亞州和亞利桑那州就是這樣。目前民主                              籍特聘研究員；譯者為廖珮杏）




              these states that are neither reliably conservative   Georgia and Arizona in 2020. For the Republicans,
              nor liberal may more accurately represent the median   the most likely blue state to flip would be Minnesota,

              American voter than solid red or blue states.    which Joe Biden carried by a margin of 7.12% in
                  If we assume that both Ohio and Florida have   2020 and Hillary Clinton by just 1.52% in 2016. For
              become reliably Republican states, then in 2024 the   Democrats – and this would be a long shot – the
              Republicans would start with 219 electoral votes   state to flip would be Texas. Donald Trump won it by
              and the Democrats 226. The Democrats could win   a margin of just 5.58% in 2020.
              the election by the narrowest of margins, reaching   With 40 electoral votes, Texas is a huge prize,
              270 electoral votes, just by winning Pennsylvania,   and if Democrats won it, they most likely would win
              Wisconsin and Michigan, which they have in every   the 2024 election by a wide margin. However, the last
              presidential election since 1988 save the 2016   Democrat to win Texas in a presidential election was

              contest. The Republicans could reach 270 if they   Jimmy Carter in 1976.
              won North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes (likely), plus   Texas remains a long shot for Democrats,
              Georgia, Arizona and one of the midwestern states.  and it will be more important for them to focus on
                  Of course, there might be a surprise, with a   winning historically blue Pennsylvania, Michigan and
              previously reliably red or blue state “flipping” to   Wisconsin if they want to remain in the White House
              the other side. This is exactly what happened with   for another four years.






         32   台灣銀行家2022.11月號







   1          5%     JOEE
        JOEE                                                                                                             ɪʹ
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