Page 31 - NO.155銀行家雜誌

果），但會失去眾議院。《經濟學人》最 然美國暫時避開了經濟衰退，通膨卻依然高
新預測顯示，民主黨將拿到51.2個參議院席 漲。根據2022年8月的數據，過去12個月來
次，共和黨則將獲得221.6個眾議院席次，超 的通膨率達到8.3%，為近30年來的高點。對
過218個席次的門檻，成為眾議院多數。 大部分選民來說，日用品價格的問題比墮胎
短短幾個月前，人們都還認為共和黨這 權還嚴重。

次會輕鬆拿下參眾兩院，因為拜登總統的支
持度一直徘徊在40%左右的低點 ， 民 主 黨 很 2024總統大選的預測
難守住參議院。但最高法院推翻1973年以
來的憲法墮胎權判決之後，局勢從此改變。 雖然還有兩年多才要進行2024總統大
雖然保守派對該判決相當開心，但大部分選 選，但白宮的門票應該還是決定在幾個搖擺
民都不認同，左傾的民主黨選民更是因此怒 州手裡。無論共和黨推的人選是川普還是別
火中燒，其中很多都是女性。他們可能原本 人，搖擺州都還是關鍵。
不投票，但這次的期中選舉很可能就會出門 有些觀察家認為，整個美國的走向由少數
去投。 幾個州來決定，實在太不合理。但在許多意義

但這大概還是無法守住眾議院，畢竟雖 上，這些既不保守也不進步的州，可能比紅州

and the Republicans 221.6 seats in the House. 218 months ended August 2022 was 8.3%, the highest
are needed for a majority in the House. level in three decades. For most voters, persistently

Just a few months ago, Republicans were rising prices of household goods are a bigger problem
predicted to handily win both chambers of Congress. than abortion rights.
With President Joe Biden’s approval rating hovering
around 40%, it was hard to see Democrats holding The 2024 presidential election
onto either the House or the Senate. But then the
Supreme Court overturned its 1973 decision granting Though the 2024 presidential election is more
women the constitutional right to an abortion. While than two years away, it can be safely said that a
popular with conservatives, this ruling does not sit well handful of purple states will once again decide the
with the majority of voters, and it has energized left- winner. It will not matter whether Donald Trump

leaning Democrats, especially women. They are now or someone else is the Republican presidential
more likely to turn out for the midterms than before. candidate. The same swing states will decide the
Still, that may not be enough to prevent the election.
Republicans from winning the House. After all, while Some observers lament that a small group of
the U.S. economy has avoided a recession for now, states seems to have such disproportionate power
inflation remains stubbornly high. Inflation for the 12 to decide the country’s leaders. But in some ways

台灣銀行家2022.11月號 31

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