Page 55 - NO.153銀行家雜誌
P. 55
許多東協國家的消費者物價指數，嚴重受到食品價格影響，有些特別依賴小麥的國家，受到影響更大。（圖／達志影像）
些什麼來推動經濟；但央行手上並沒有這類 區今年的經濟成長率預計放緩到4.2%，比我
工具，因為能夠影響實質經濟成長率的，其 們在4月份的預期少了0.7%，而且低於2021
實是財政機關而非央行，而且貨幣政策也無 年的成長率6.5%。此外，IMF也把2023年的
法解決供應鏈壅塞的問題。央行還經常面臨 成長率下修0.5%，目前預計為4.6%。通膨不
巨大政治壓力，官員必須非常了解自己的計 僅壓縮經濟成長，可能還會導致各種社會問
畫，這樣才能確實緩解通膨，不要因為通膨 題，例如妨礙族群包容、加劇不平等、陷入
率會暫時升高而捨棄了有效的政策。 貧窮，包括增加營養不良人口等等，長期來
總之，全球通膨可能會威脅到東協2022 說，對東協國家的人力資本發展不利。（本
年之後的經濟復甦。東協的外國直接投資、 文作者Mark McKenzie為SEACEN金融資深
實際私人消費、私人投資可能都會因此減 研究員、Ole Rummel為SEACEN總體經濟與
少，經濟成長因此削弱。根據I M F，亞太地 貨幣政策管理主任；譯者為廖珮杏）
intense political pressure. Central bankers percent this year, 0.7 percentage points less
will need to be clear about their plan to bring than we forecasted in April and slower than
inflation back, even if they believe that inflation the 6.5 percent growth in 2021. The IMF also
will rise higher in the short term. lowered its 2023 forecast to 4.6 percent, down
To conclude, global inflation could be a by 0.5 percentage points. Additionally, inflation
threat to ASEAN’s economic recovery in 2022 could also contribute to other social issues such
and beyond. It could weaken economic growth as inclusion, inequality and poverty including
in the region by reducing FDI inflows, real a greater prevalence of undernourishment,
private consumption and private investment. which has long-term consequences on the
According to the IMF, economic growth in Asia development of human capital in ASEAN
and the Pacific is projected to decelerate to 4.2 economies.
台灣銀行家2022.9月號 55
1 5% JOEE
