Page 46 - NO.161銀行家雜誌

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許多人認為，在中國經濟尚未從疫情的陰 年宣布「討伐」影子銀行以後，中國的負債水
影和防疫政策留下的傷痕中復甦之際，建立一 平也一直在上升。日益複雜的金融部門、龐大
個新機構實在是太奢侈了，甚至有些草率。但 的表外債務構成的系統性風險仍然普遍存在。
值得注意的是，在國際上，集中的監管和監督 此外，在過去一年半的時間裡，一些房地
機構往往是在系統性風險最高、可能需要進行 產開發商的違約也損害了中國的金融機構，更

金融體系重組的時候建立的。 何況房地產業的困境尚未結束，國家放寬了開
接下來的問題是，中國是否處於一場正在 發商的貸款上限作為暫時性的緩衝，此前這個
醞釀的金融危機之中、需要迅速有效地加以應 上限收緊導致部分開發商破產，2021年資產規
對。毫無疑問，矽谷銀行和瑞信的危機表示這 模排名全球前列的恆大地產首當其衝。
不是沒有可能。 最後，地方政府需要承擔實施疫情動態清
然而，中國金融體系的系統性風險不僅來 零政策的大部分費用，而地方政府的主要收入
自於美國和歐洲銀行業危機的連鎖效應，也來 來源―― 土地出讓收入卻直線下降。到2022
自於國內因素。首先，即使在習近平於 2017 年第三季度，中國所有省份都出現了財政赤

Second, the recent decision to concentrate internationally, centralized regulatory and supervisory
regulatory and supervisory power in a single institution agencies tend to be created when systemic risk is at
has not been very transparent about what the role of the its highest and a potential restructuring of financial
government (the State Council) will be with regard to systems may be warranted.
the Party and, specifically, President Xi Jinping. This is The question is whether China is in a situation with a
important since the trend remains the same: reduce the brewing financial crisis that may need to be tackled swiftly
executive power and concentrate it to the Party. and effectively. Without a doubt, what is happening with

On the other hand, beyond the fact that the Banking Silicon Valley Bank and with Credit Suisse does not leave
and Insurance Regulatory Commission will be forced to us alone in terms of probabilities.
dissolve, there are also rumors that the central bank staff The increase in systemic risk in the Chinese financial
will suffer salary cuts that is part of a broader objective of system comes not only from potential contagion from
reducing government spending by 5%. The reductions in banks in the US or Europe, but also from domestic factors.
pay and staffing may be intended to free up funds for the Firstly, China's debt level has only increased since Xi
authorities to hire qualified staff for the newly reconstituted Jinping declared a 'crusade' against the so-called shadow
regulatory body. banking in the second half of 2017. In fact, the financial
For many, creating a new institution at a time when sector is increasingly complex marked by pervasive off-

the Chinese economy is struggling to recover from balance sheet positions.
the fallout from COVID may seem like a luxury, In addition, payment defaults by several real
or even a whim. It is important to note that estate developers over the past year and a half have

46 台灣銀行家2023.5月號

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