Page 74 - NO.149銀行家雜誌

तйΆྌ
Special Report

零轉為動態清零的人，根本無法清楚描述 香 港 目 前 的狀況，未來可能會成為其
那是什麼意思，也顯示了漂亮的口號永遠 他地方的現實。中國大部分的地方都已經被

無法取代實際的策略。」 COVID-19入侵，其中也包括與香港分庭抗禮
的金融中心上海。而香港在疫情下爆發的許
͜໔ҳୃ 多其他問題，未來可能也會在中國其他地方
重演，而且規模更大。例如中央政府與地方
在 這一連串發展之下，大量外國人開始 政府之間可能會發生利益衝突，這時候政策
離開香港。根據投資人David Webb整理的資 就會變得難以預測。
料，從2月之後，香港出境人數減掉入境人數 因此，除了香港之外，中國其他地方也
每天都高達數千名。這樣的衝擊可能比2020 遲早會湧現一波外國人離境潮，尤其是那些
年的《國安法》還大，畢竟當時許多外籍人 位居要職、有小孩的外國人，很可能會就

士大概都認為該法律不會直接影響到他們。 此離去。這些人過去2年之所以一直撐著不
這 股 逃 難潮已經影響到香港經濟，香港的 走，是因為知道一旦離開中國就無法再回
房租開始下降，二手車開始暴增；而大量湧入 去，之前在中國的努力可能就會付諸東流。
新加坡的移民，也讓新加坡出現政治問題，據 但命比錢重要，目前的局勢讓許多人準備好
報導，新加坡的國際學校快要塞滿了。 鐵下了心。

description of it, also showing that a nice slogan market. The new arrivals have become a political

is not a substitute for an actual strategy. issue in Singapore, which has received a large
influx in proportion to its small size. Singapore’s
Voting with their feet international schools are reportedly running out of
spaces.
The result of these developments has been Hong Kong itself may serve as a preview of
a mass exodus of foreigners from Hong Kong: things to come. COVID-19 has now spread to much
thousands of net departures a day since February, of the mainland, including Shanghai, Hong Kong’s
according to data compiled by activist investor main rival as a Chinese financial center. Many of
David Webb. The impact may be larger than that the same issues have accompanied its spread,

of the 2020 passage of the National Security Law. except on a much larger scale. In particular, there
Many expats didn’t necessarily think the law affects are widespread suspicions of a divergence in
them directly. interests between the political center and local
The scale of the recent migration has been governments, which could lead to ongoing policy
large enough to cause disruption. Hong Kong rents unpredictability.
are down, and used cars are being dumped on the Thus, in addition to Hong Kong, there will

74 台灣銀行家2022.5月號

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