Page 35 - NO.146銀行家雜誌

並不是所有人都準備好上戰場。相比之下， 望中國能幫助南韓與北韓達成和解，他對平
南韓軍隊規模就強大得多，目前有近60萬人 壤的感情使他在某程度上一直被北京牽制。
正在服役，預備役軍人也有310萬人，軍事 不過，文在寅總統將於2022年3月卸
訓練的強度幾乎跟正規部隊一樣艱苦。南韓 任。如果在野的保守派政黨「國民力量」
「動員預備役」規定每月須有一天接受正規 （PPP）候選人尹錫悅（Yoon Suk-yeol）在

訓練，每年要參加一次3天的召集動員訓練。 總統大選中獲勝，南韓對北韓和中國的態度
可能就會降溫，而更專注於鞏固與美國的關
南韓最終倒向何方？ 係。這也會讓南韓走回保守派之前當政時的
路線。目前民調顯示，尹錫悅以微小差距領
如果想讓台韓關係再向前邁進一步，南 先「共同民主黨」的候選人李在明（Lee Jae-
韓政府必須像美國和日本那樣，不要那麼堅 myung）。
持一個中國政策。也就是說，南韓未來看待 無論最終誰贏得南韓總統大選，地緣
與台灣的關係，不要再事事顧及北京當局會 政治的風向都在轉變。由於美中對立持續升
怎麼想。不過目前在左傾總統文在寅的領導 溫，南韓最終還是可能必須像當初毛澤東說

下，要打破僵局大概不太有希望。文在寅希 的那樣「一邊倒」。1949年冷戰升溫之際，

South Korea relations, Seoul would have to loosen Korean administrations. Currently, Yoon has a slight
its interpretation of the one-China policy as the U.S. lead in the polls over the Democratic Party candidate

and Japan have done. That would mean no longer Lee Jae-myung.
primarily viewing ties with Taipei through the prism of Regardless of who wins South Korea’s
Beijing’s feelings on the matter. Under a left-leaning presidential election, the geopolitical winds are
president like Moon Jae-in, who expects China to shifting. As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies, Seoul
help him reconcile with North Korea, such a change is may eventually have no choice but to “lean to one
unlikely. Moon’s sentimentality about Pyongyang has side” in the words of erstwhile China chairman Mao
made him captive to Beijing in a certain sense. Zedong. Mao coined the term in 1949 as the Cold War
However, Moon will leave office in March 2022. was heating up, urging his comrades to embrace the
Should the conservative opposition candidate Yoon Soviet Union as an ideological and material ally, while

Suk-yeol of the People Power Party (PPP) win the shunning the “imperialist” United States. For Seoul,
presidential election, chances are that South Korea the choice will be the United States – as it was during
would take a cooler approach to relations with both the Cold War – because of China’s rising aggression
the North and China. Yoon would instead likely focus and Washington’s paramountcy to South Korea’s
on bulwarking Seoul’s alliance with the United States. national security, which ultimately matters more than
That would be consistent with prior conservative South narrow economic interests.

台灣銀行家2022.2月號 35

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