Page 13 - NO.161銀行家雜誌
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旦擠兌速率就會過快，而且會超過存款理賠額                             下。日本的淨國際投資部位（ N I I P ） 更 是
              的25萬美元上限。此外由於風險管理缺陷與                             從2021年12月的3.57兆美元，減少至3.18兆
              監理缺失，SVB沒有對沖手中持有的大量美國                            美元。
              債券；相比之下，日本大多數銀行通常已將海
              外債券的匯率風險進行了對沖。                                   人口老化與新能源

                  因此日本面臨的主要問 題 是 ， 當 它 們
              持有的債券與相關對沖合約到期，會發生                                    這似乎顯示日本正在動用其外匯存底來購
              什麼事情。美國外交關係協會（C o u n c i l                      買能源。日本2022年的貿易逆差達到1,552.7
              o n   F or e ig n   Re l at i on s ） 的 賽 瑟 （ B ra d   億美元的高點，僅次於1979年，該年發生能源
              S e t s e r）與埃特拉（A l e x  E t r a）指出，美           危機，而且規模與去年的投資狀況相似。這些
              元短期借貸成本上漲，使得2022年貨幣對                             投資與貿易趨勢可能都延續到了2023年，使
              沖成本大幅提升。因此日本已經大量縮減海                              央行收支相當拮据。因此，日本如今必須設法
              外投資部位，甚至是與美國 市 場 相 關 的 部                         吸收回到國內的過剩流動性，如果這些資金再
              位。商業銀行在2022年間，將持有的外國                             次流向海外投資目標，日圓可能進一步貶值。

              債券從8,500億美元減少到6,000億美元以                               但新任的央行總裁植田和男，並不認為



              at SVB, none of which apply to Japan’s banking   on its foreign positions on a large scale, even
              sector. SVB’s depositor base was unusually       in relation to the US market. Commercial banks
              concentrated, which contributed to both the speed   reduced their position in foreign bonds from US
              of the run and the portion of deposits which     $850 billion to under US $600 billion over the
              exceeded the US $250,000 deposit insurance       course of 2022. Japan’s overall net international

              limit. Furthermore, due to both inadequate risk   investment position (NIIP) decreased somewhat
              management and regulatory oversight, SVB’s large   more, from US $3.57 trillion in December 2021 to
              holdings of US bonds were unhedged, while most   US $3.18 trillion.
              Japanese banks have hedged the currency risks on
              their overseas bond holdings.                    Aging  population,  new  energy  infra-

                  Thus, the main question for Japan is what    structure
              happens as its bond holdings, and associated
              hedge contracts, expire. Currency hedging costs       Implicitly, Japan is paying for gas by drawing
              rose sharply in 2022, driven by higher short-    down its forex savings. Japan’s trade deficit reached
              term borrowing USD costs, according to analysis   a record of $155.27 billion in 2022, second only to

              by Brad Setser and Alex Etra at the Council on   1979 (a year which also featured an energy crisis),
              Foreign Relations. Thus, Japan has pulled back   and similar in magnitude to its change in investment





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