Page 12 - NO.161銀行家雜誌
P. 12

觀天下
                Global View







              影響僅限於股價                                          現損失。而且政府在COVID-19疫情之後為中
                                                               小企業提供的23兆日圓貸款利息擔保，如今
                  但這些復甦曙光並沒有改善整體財政窘                            也即將結束，使銀行腹背受敵。S V B破產之
              境。在長年的低利率政策下，日本國內的機                              後，東京證券交易所的銀行業指數在3天內下
              會逐漸枯竭，地區性銀行開始累積海外資                               跌16%。

              產。它們資產組合中的外國資產比例，從                                    金融廳審議官屋敷利紀認為地區性銀行
              2012年的10%成長到2022年的30%。身為全                        的風險來自外部。他對路透社表示，「海外
              球第三大經濟體，這麼高的持有比例勢必影                              媒體似乎都在關注SVB破產會如何影響日本地
              響美國市場。2020年，日本在全球貸款抵                             區性銀行，但我要強調這兩者完全不同。」
              押債券（C L O s）的持有比例已達15%，因                         儘管如此，他也承認升息會造成重大風險。
              此明顯受到美國的利率政策與匯率波動影                                    日本央行3月份的簡報大抵同意上述觀
              響。此外，日本也是美國國債最大的外國持                              點，並以年度報告指出地區性金融機構的風
              有者。                                              險管理具有缺陷。
                  地區性銀行的這些海外資產，雖有強大                                 SVB的擠兌來自幾項獨特因素，這些因素

              的資本緩衝，目前卻仍有大約4兆日圓的未實                             都不會發生在日本。SVB的存戶異常集中，一



              opportunities gradually dried up over years of low-  end soon, creating a perfect storm. Following the
              rate policy, regional banks started accumulating   SVB collapse, the Tokyo Stock Exchange banks
              assets overseas. Between 2012 and 2022, the foreign   index fell 16% in three days.
              portion of their asset portfolios grew from 10% to 30%.   Toshinori Yashiki,  deputy  director-general
              Being the world’s third largest economy, such a large   of the FSA, characterized worries about regional

              position in Japan is bound to affect US markets.   banks as external in nature. “Overseas media
              By 2020, Japan accounted for 15% of the entire   seem to be focusing on Japanese regional banks
              global market of collateralized loan obligations   in association with the SVB collapse, but I'd like
              (CLOs), which provides an important channel for   to emphasize that they are completely different,”
              US interest rate policy, as well as exchange rate   he told Reuters, while also acknowledging that

              fluctuations,  to  affect Japan.  Japan is  also  the   an increase in interest rates would constitute a
              largest foreign owner of US treasuries.          significant risk.
                  The banks now carry some 4 trillion yen of       The central bank largely agreed in a March
              unrealized losses on overseas assets, although   briefing, while releasing an annual report pointing
              they also have strong capital buffers. Government   to certain deficiencies in risk management in

              guarantees on the interest for 23 trillion yen in   regional financial institutions.
              COVID-related loans to SMEs will also come to an     Several unique factors contributed to the run






         12   台灣銀行家2023.5月號






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