Page 50 - 銀行家雜誌第71期
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ೊᓃ༑ᕚ







                     4ɽࡡΪᜫ˴ਗό၍ଣਿږΈᐑ̰Ѝ


                     ҳڦνОᙊΫҳ༟ɛٙːk






                     ҳڦପุٙͦᅺ݊ಁਿᄴٙҳ༟ɛ၍ଣҳ༟ଡ଼Υd᙮׵ږፄ͏˴ʷٙɓᐑd
                     ʔཀΌଢ˴ࠅ਷࢕ٙҳڦପุdՉٟึ̌ঐʿπίٙᄆ࠽Ԩ͊஗౷ཁႩΝdࡡΪОίk

                     撰文:劉宏基、李思華、陳宜廷






                                    ϋ ፕ Ԏ ဧ ຾         ڦପุତرԸႭdЧ˷֠͊၈                   ᅺ࿮ਿږ຾ଣɛٙ፯ࣛe፯ٰ
                     2013 ᏶ ኪ ᆤ ੻ ˴                   ᔖٙҲစλவࡈᗫᒟԉЍdՉ                   ঐɢdঐ੄௴ி̈Ꮄ׵̹ఙٙ

                     ᖯЬhࢩਔ(Robert Shiller)            ٟึ̌ঐ˸ʿπίٙᄆ࠽Ԩ͊                   జཇd͵у͂઻̹ఙf್Ͼኪ
                     ׵ՉഹЪږፄၾߕλٟึ‘                    ஗౷ཁႩΝdӺՉࡡΪ̙ʱɨ                   ஔɪٙ୕ࠇᅰኽѓൡҢࡁdவ
                     (Finance and the Good            ΐ఻ᓃԸʱؓj                         ᅵٙ܁၈݊࠽੻ᕿဲٙfίኪ
                     Society)ʕ౤Ցd˜ҳڦପุ                                                ஔɪ၈˴ਗό၍ଣਿږމ˜፩
                     ٙͦᅺఱ݊ಁਿᄴٙҳ༟ɛ၍                    ࡡΪ1j                            ࢕༷ٙᏕ™(loser's game)d
                     ଣҳ༟ଡ଼Υd݊᙮׵ږፄ͏˴                    ҳ༟ᐶࣖε̒͊͂઻̹ఙ                     Ϊމఱ዆᜗ϾԊdଣሞɪהϞ
                     ʷٙɓᐑdɰ݊ܔͭߕλٟึ                                                    ਿږٙڌତၝΥৎԸߒଫึഃ

                     ٙᗫᒟԉЍf™ʔཀ˸ͦۃҳ                      ɽεᅰٙ˴ਗό၍ଣਿږே                  Ν׵዆᜗̹ఙٙڌତdШೌሞ
                                                                                      ਿږᐶࣖڌତνОdவԬ˴ਗ
                                                                                      ό၍ଣਿږேࠅΣҳ༟ɛϗ՟
                        €ྡ1ཀ̘40ϋd˴ਗό၍ଣਿږᐶࣖ͂઻                                         ɓ֛ˢଟٙ൬͜dΪϤίϔৰ
                                ̹ఙٙˢଟ                                                 வԬ൬͜ʘܝdఱء֛ə˴ਗ
                         90                                                            ό၍ଣਿږٙ዆᜗ᐶࣖڌତਗ਼
                         80
                         70                                                            ໝܝ׵̹ఙf
                         60                                                              ॲߒɽኪৌਕኪ઺બAswath
                         50
                         40                                                           Damodaranܸ̈d߰ਿږ຾
                         30                                                           ଣɛٙ፯ࣛe፯ٰঐɢ݊Ϟࣖ
                         20
                         10                                                           ٙdӊϋ๫ଣᏐϞ̒ᅰ˸ɪਿ
                         %  0                                                         ږٙᐶࣖึ௷ཀ̹ఙdʔཀᝈ
                            '70   '75   '80   '85   '90   '95   '00   '05   '10   '14
                         資料來源:S&P SPIVA Report, 2014                                  ࿀əཀ̘ߒ40ϋٙዝ̦༟ࣘd
                                                                                      ՉʕසϞ13ϋᜑͪ̒ᅰ˸ɪٙ





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