Page 50 - 銀行家雜誌第71期
P. 50
ೊᓃ༑ᕚ
4ɽࡡΪᜫ˴ਗό၍ଣਿږΈᐑ̰Ѝ
ҳڦνОᙊΫҳ༟ɛٙːk
ҳڦପุٙͦᅺ݊ಁਿᄴٙҳ༟ɛ၍ଣҳ༟ଡ଼Υd᙮ږፄ͏˴ʷٙɓᐑd
ʔཀΌଢ˴ࠅٙҳڦପุdՉٟึ̌ঐʿπίٙᄆ࠽Ԩ͊౷ཁႩΝdࡡΪОίk
撰文:劉宏基、李思華、陳宜廷
ϋ ፕ Ԏ ဧ ڦପุତرԸႭdЧ˷֠͊၈ ᅺਿږଣɛٙ፯ࣛe፯ٰ
2013 ኪ ᆤ ˴ ᔖٙҲစλவࡈᗫᒟԉЍdՉ ঐɢdঐ௴ி̈Ꮄ̹ఙٙ
ᖯЬhࢩਔ(Robert Shiller) ٟึ̌ঐ˸ʿπίٙᄆ࠽Ԩ͊ జཇd͵у̹͂ఙf್Ͼኪ
ՉഹЪږፄၾߕλٟึ ౷ཁႩΝdӺՉࡡΪ̙ʱɨ ஔɪٙ୕ࠇᅰኽѓൡҢࡁdவ
(Finance and the Good ΐᓃԸʱؓj ᅵٙ܁၈݊࠽ᕿဲٙfίኪ
Society)ʕՑdҳڦପุ ஔɪ၈˴ਗό၍ଣਿږމ፩
ٙͦᅺఱ݊ಁਿᄴٙҳ༟ɛ၍ ࡡΪ1j ༷ٙᏕ(loser's game)d
ଣҳ༟ଡ଼Υd݊᙮ږፄ͏˴ ҳ༟ᐶࣖε̹̒͊͂ఙ ΪމఱϾԊdଣሞɪהϞ
ʷٙɓᐑdɰ݊ܔͭߕλٟึ ਿږٙڌତၝΥৎԸߒଫึഃ
ٙᗫᒟԉЍfʔཀ˸ͦۃҳ ɽεᅰٙ˴ਗό၍ଣਿږே Ν̹ఙٙڌତdШೌሞ
ਿږᐶࣖڌତνОdவԬ˴ਗ
ό၍ଣਿږேࠅΣҳ༟ɛϗ՟
ྡ1ཀ̘40ϋd˴ਗό၍ଣਿږᐶࣖ͂ ɓ֛ˢଟٙ൬͜dΪϤίϔৰ
̹ఙٙˢଟ வԬ൬͜ʘܝdఱء֛ə˴ਗ
90 ό၍ଣਿږٙᐶࣖڌତਗ਼
80
70 ໝܝ̹ఙf
60 ॲߒɽኪৌਕኪબAswath
50
40 Damodaranܸ̈d߰ਿږ
30 ଣɛٙ፯ࣛe፯ٰঐɢ݊Ϟࣖ
20
10 ٙdӊϋଣᏐϞ̒ᅰ˸ɪਿ
% 0 ږٙᐶࣖึ௷ཀ̹ఙdʔཀᝈ
'70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '14
資料來源:S&P SPIVA Report, 2014 ࿀əཀ̘ߒ40ϋٙዝ̦༟ࣘd
ՉʕසϞ13ϋᜑͪ̒ᅰ˸ɪٙ
50 ̨ᝄვБ2015.11˜

