Page 97 - the taiwan banker 2024.09(177)

ᐼ᜗ϾԊd3ࡈ˙ࣩ࿁Ꮠ3ࡈܿ኷dʕ ݄Ըᇠ༆ཀܓᎷႅձ˕ܵ࢕ࢬऊ൬fซࠅ
਷͍༊ྡஷཀ۬ᕄʷձ௴อආɓӉ౤৷ʈ ਂՑவɓᓃdცࠅܔͭɓࡈ၅л਷࢕Ԩ༶
ุପঐdΝࣛҷഛʮ΍ৌ݁Ԩᜊ੻һ̋ ᔷԄλdШ݊வࡈ˙ΣЧ˷ʔίʕ਷ٙ

Іɢһ͛dԸᇠ༆຾᏶ഐ࿴׌ಯ஺ٙਪ ࠇ೥ʕiՉϣdၾୋɓᓃ޴ᗫٙ݊dί਷
ᕚfʕ਷Ҏૐவ3ධણ݄ঐ੄ҖϓԄ׌ృ ʫცӋहழٙઋرɨdʕ਷Ч˷ԨӚϞᗫ
ᐑd੽ϾࠥЭגήପձή˙ִ̙݁ঐˏ೯ ءආɓӉ౤৷͛ପ੭ԸٙਪᕚdԷν০࿁

ٙӻ୕׌ࠬᎈf ʕ਷ආɹٙڭᚐ˴່ැɢ͍ί੡ৎi௰
ટɨԸdఱ݊ഃܙִ݁પ̈ҷࠧٙՈ ܝdʕ਷ٙӷᐄ௅ژஷ੬ˢ਷ϞΆุһՈ
᜗ણ݄ձ୚ືf࿁׵ϤϣɧʕΌึՓ֛ٙ ͛ପɢdШࠦᑗ္ٙ၍ࠢՓһ̋ᘌࣸfၾ

݁ഄdɛࡁٙୋɓΙ൥̙ঐ݊வԬણ݄ʔ 2013ϋձ2018ϋٙɧʕΌึ޴ˢdவϣึ
ԑ˸༆Ӕʕ਷ٙ຾᏶Ѣྤf࠯΋dʕ਷຾ ᙄίሔՑӷᐄ௅ژٙЪࣛ͜޲ଫəҖ࢙൚
᏶ცࠅܨూݺɢdШऊ൬٫ձҳ༟٫ٙ ˜Ӕ֛׌™dڌ׼࿁׵ӷᐄ௅ژ္ٙ၍˙
ઋၫʔ˄̙ঐΪவԬણ݄Ͼ৷ပfԫྼ Σ̙ঐʔึ׳ᄱf（本文作者為法國外貿

ɪdʕ਷ִ݁֠͊܁̺΂ОՈ᜗ٙҷࠧણ 銀行首席經濟學家）

self-reliant. The hope is that these three measures will domestic demand while protectionist forces are rising
create a virtuous circle by which systemic risk from against Chinese imports. Lastly, China’s private
the real estate, but also local government, is reduced. sector is generally more productive than state-owned

Waiting for the details on the actual reforms enterprises but has been increasingly hammered by
that China’s leadership commits to implementing the Chinese government through tighter regulations
from this Third Plenum, the first impression is that and other types of crack-downs. The readout does not

the above measures will probably not be enough to seem to give any of a change in direction, if any the
solve China’s economic woos. Firstly, the Chinese opposite by omitting the adjective “decisive” when
economy needs to go back to its vibrancy but both speaking about the role of the private sector compared
consumers’ and investors’ sentiment are unlikely to to the 2013 and 2018 gatherings.

change on the basis of such measures. In fact, no All in all, the “Third Plenum” which has just
specific reform has been announced to reduce excess concluded has clearly not been a game changer in
savings and support household consumption. This terms of the reforms announced, especially given the

would require the creation of a well-functioning challenges ahead both externally and domestically. It
welfare state which does not seem to be in the Chinese seems as if the Chinese authorities prefer to muddle
leadership’s plans. Secondly, and related to the first through while doubling down on their convictions.

point, there does not seem to be any preoccupation The problem is that there by now much more mud
on China’s increasingly large production without to deal with.

2024.9 台灣銀行家 97

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