Page 56 - the taiwan banker 2024.09(177)
P. 56
Όଢ݁
ɨdڗಂවՎಟлଟೌجҁߕή՟˾வ Google Trendsӻ୕dЪމཫ͏ගऊ
Ԭཫಂdྼਕɪdତίٙஷጱཫಂܸ ൬eג̹eٰ̹ഃࠦΣٙਿ༟ৃf
ᅰdʔΎఊɓ፠ʕڗಂʮවಟлଟٙ
ပൻdϾ̋ɝՉ˼Ϊ९f 納入網路大數據
Ңʕ̯ვБజѓʕಀՑdߕ 可縮短預期時間
ዚ࿁ஷጱཫಂ݊ܣჿϓٙdΪ
ೌՈᅰኽ̙ᝈ࿀dɓছમሜݟʿ Էν Pavlicek 2014 ۆᓃ̈
̹ఙʹਿᓾՇ၇˙όԸፅඎf G o o g l e ࠇඎኪٙᙄᕚdீཀʈЪᗫ
ίሜݟʱd̙Դ͜Г࣬ɽኪ ٙ Google ᗫᒟοฤరԸ൙П࿁ุ̰ଟٙ
ऊ൬٫ሜݟeNew York Fedٙऊ൬٫ཫ ᅂᚤdՉ˸ІᓥᅼۨAutoregressive
ಂሜݟePhiladelphia Fedٙਖ਼ุཫሜ model, ARʿΣඎІҢᓥVector
ݟSurvey of Professional Forecasters, Autoregression, VARՇ၇ᅼ̘ۨආБʱ
SPFdуPhiladelphia Fedӊ֙ஞݟਖ਼ุ ؓdӺ೯ତdਗ਼Googleฤర༟ࣘॶɝ
ɛɻ࿁ߕ࢝ૐجd୕ܝʮ̺ཫ ʱؓᅼۨܝdึᜫᅼۨཫɢ༰ෂ୕ᜊᅰ
࠽ʕЗᅰഃᅰኽf ᅼۨһމᆽf
̯БɰϞ։ৄʫኪஔఊЗӺᗳЧ
美國對民間調查加上市場交易 ˴ᕚd࿁̨ᝄ͏ගऊ൬ٙཫdɓ΅։ৄ
構成通膨預期 ˰อɽኪৌਕږፄኪӻਓબெቜᏐ
͜ɽᅰኽʺ̨ᝄ͏ගऊ൬ཫ˴ᕚ
ί̹ఙʹਿᓾʱdۆ̍ўߕ Ӻʕdˢ༰ə׳ɝၣ༩ɽᅰኽܸᅺձෂ୕
ҤஷጱʮවTreasury Inflation-Protected ɓছܸۨᅺٙࢨମdഐ؈೯ତdॶɝɽᅰ
Securities, TIPSeஷጱʹ౬Inflation ኽܝٙᅼۨdϞ༰Գٙཫঐɢdν؈͏
SwapΥߒeΝஷጱཫಂܸᅺIndex ගऊ൬̙˸ΪϤ৷ཫɢdԟჿ͊Ըɰ
of Common Inflation Expectations, ਗ਼ϞՉ˼Ӻ০࿁һεϓஷጱཫಂٙਞ
CIEഃf ᅰ̘Ӻf
ყɪd౻ंܸᅺeఱุe͏͛ऊ ஷጱദeཫಂஷጱദɓٜ݊
൬e࿆ږፄeٰୃ̹ఙeවՎ̹ఙeג ̯Бeږፄዚܵᚃрɢٙͦᅺd͍
ήପ̹ఙeɽ֚ي༟eყϗ˕ၾආ̈ νᔼኪe߅ኪჯਹٙӋd࿁ஷጱٙ
ɹɰϞ˼̯БॶɝᇜႡஷጱཫಂܸ Ꮠ͜ʈՈίᅰɤϋԸٙྼᗇʘɨdɰʔᓙ
ᅰd࠽ɓٙ݊dவԬ༟ࣘ᎖ଟஷ੬݊ ٙࡌ͍ʕdΌଢٙІ͟൱ږፄዚ
1ࡈ˜ʑϞ1അdԟჿd݊щϞһуࣛٙᅰ ேᗫːߕᑌึٙɨɓӉлଟਗЪdซ
ኽdঐһҞˀᏐճk ࠅᒈැdə༆ஷጱཫಂܸᅰϓމᗫ
ϞٙdڐϋϞεӺd༶͜Ό ᒟٙɓӉf (本文作者在媒體工作近20
ଢԴ͜ଟ௰৷ٙGoogleᗫᒟοฤర᎖ϣ 年,長期關注金融議題)
56 台灣銀行家 2024.9
1 5% JOEE