Page 93 - the taiwan banker 2024.07(175)
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ʕ਷੶ሜ˜อሯ͛ପɢ™ٙߠ౻ɨd̋
                                                               ᅄᗫ೼˾ڌഹߕ਷፯኿મ՟һ੶೷ٙͭ
                                                               ఙdᒱ್ͦۃʕ਷Σߕ਷̈ɹٙཥਗӛ

                                                               ԓ஝ᅼԨʔɽdШᗫ೼ࠢՓٙʔ̥݊຅
                                                               ɨdɰ݊০࿁Չ͊ԸٙϓڗᆑɢdΪމߕ
              美國大選在即和中國強調「新質生產力」的背景下，加徵
              關稅代表著美國選擇採取更強硬的立場。                               ਷ଭ௞݊ɓࡈڢ੬ࠠࠅ̹ٙఙf࠽੻ᗫء
                                                               ٙᒔϞdߕ਷࿁׵ʕ਷ίୋɧ਷ٙ͛ପᇞ

              25%fуԴίᒵ਷ձ˚͉ٙᏍпɨdߕ਷ɰ                             אᔷɹ൱׸ٙᄲݟᘌࣸ೻ܓf
              ʔ˄̙ঐͭуర੻ಁ˾Ը๕f
                  ˄ජঐཥϫٙᗫ೼࿁ʕ਷ٜٙટᅂ                              凸顯中國產能過剩憂心

              ᚤɰ༰މϞࠢdΪމߕ਷ස̕ʕ਷˄ජ
              ঐཥϫ̈ɹٙ 0.8% fІ 2018 ϋʇ౷݁                              Ϥ̮dவධણ݄̙ঐึ̋ᄌһε਷࢕
              ִ࿁ʕ਷˄ජঐཥϫʿཥϫؐᅄϗᗫ೼˸                               ࿁׵ʕ਷௴อձ˜ପঐཀ௵™ਪᕚٙዄ

              Ըdʕ਷˄ජঐ࿁ߕٜટ̈ɹඎఱක֐ܵᚃ                              ᅊd੽Ͼˏ೯ܝᚃٙஹᕁˀᏐdतй݊ᆄ
              ᐵʃdϾ2022ϋܰ೮ִ݁һַ݊ڗəவධᗫ                            ຑٙˀᏐ˸ʿʕ਷ٙᏐ࿁dʑ݊ᗫᒟf
              ೼fϞᛠ׵ਿᅰ༰ʃdཫࠇᗫ೼ɪሜ͉Ԓʔ                                   ᆄຑٙˀᏐʘה˸ࠠࠅdޫΪᆄຑ

              ึ࿁ٜટ൱׸ிϓ΂Оྼሯ׌ᅂᚤf                                 ݊ʕ਷޴ᗫପۜٙࠠࠅ̈ɹ̹ఙfఱͦ
                  ್Ͼd੽ڗಂԸ޶dߕ਷ɽ፯ίуձ                             ۃٙήᇝᐑྤϾԊdᆄຑ̙ঐึ༧ᎇߕ





              the tariffs on the two products (25% to 100% for EVs,   the upcoming presidential elections and the emphasis
              but only 7.5% to 25% for EV batteries). It is unlikely   by  China  on  “new  productive forces”. While China

              the US can find alternative sources immediately even   may not export a considerable amount of EVs to the US
              with help of South Korea and Japan.              right now, the move limits the future growth potential as
                  The tariffs on solar cells may not bring immediate   the US is a very important end market. Also, it should
              impact, either. Although China is a big producer, the   be watched that how tough the US government will be

              US only forms 0.8% of China’s solar cell exports.   when scrutinizing different arrangements or production
              The reason is the Trump administration initiated the   lines of China in third countries.

              tariff on solar cells and panels in 2018 which was then   The tariffs may likely fuel the worries about state-
              extended by the Biden administration in 2022. Given   led innovation and overcapacity in more countries.
              the minimal base, the tariff hike itself is not expected   The ripple effects may be substantial, especially if the
              to cause any material impact on the direct trade.   European Union (EU) and China react.

                  However, from a long-term perspective, the       The EU’s response is crucial as it is China’s
              tariffs may signal a tougher stance by the US amid   second largest export market by region. However,




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