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中國將繼續投資「一帶一路」倡議的相關專案。因目前西方市場的不確定環境，使得中國必須做好向其他市場轉移的準備，
以保證海外市場的穩定。

਷ऎ̮͛ପٙᆑίᄲݟਗ਼݊ɓࡈ࠽੻ᗫء ึˏ೯ɓӻΐܝᚃٙԫ΁d˰ޢՉ˼਷࢕
ٙਪᕚfϤ̮dอጳ̹ఙɰ̙ঐึ࿁ʕ਷ ٙᏐ࿁ᜊ੻ڢ੬ฆѶf೹Ϟʔ຅d̈ତ
ٙ˜ପঐཀ௵™ਂ̈ˀᏐf੽ΙܓՑז һᄿع൱׸኷̙ٙঐ׌ேึᄣ̋d˲͊

ߕd΢਷࿁ʕ਷̈ɹପۜٙᘩنᏀɢ౷ཁ Ըʔરৰ൱׸હ᏶e஬࿆൰࠽ᘩنഃɓ
ίᄣ̋dՉʕऒʿٙପۜᇍఖɰ༰ᄿd̍ ӻΐՉ˼ણ݄ٙ̈ତfೌሞνОdცࠅ
ܼၠЍ߅Ҧձ፻᚛ഃf ᘱᚃᝈ࿀˰ޢ΢਷࿁׵Ϥϣ̋ᅄᗫ೼ٙ

ᐼϾԊʘdГ˙਷࢕˚ूዄᅊʕ਷ٙ ˀᏐf€本文作者為法國外貿銀行首席
ପঐਪᕚdߕ਷޶Ч̻૱ٙ̋೼ણ݄̙ঐ 經濟學家

Still, China will continue to invest in the Belt is also not immune to China’s overcapacity. From

and Road Initiative. Realizing the uncertainties in India to Latin America, there are more pressure
accessing the western market, China will have to prepare to impose tariffs on China’s exports with a wide
for shifting to Global South as a solution to absorb its product range, such as green tech and steel.
existing capacity, which has become very important for Therefore, the probability of a broader trade

China’s sustained manufacturing growth. war is clearly rising due to the concern of the
Of course, the response from the emerging overcapacity risk in China, which will bring potential
markets will also be important to watch. They are consequences on top of trade. Moving forward,

not only potential markets for Chinese EV and additional measures from trade remedies to
solar cells, but also overseas production sites to currency devaluation competition cannot be
achieve global export expansion. In this regard, ruled out. In any case, more time is needed to

the US’ potential scrutiny over China’s overseas assess reaction of the world to Biden’s tariffs,
production will be a major issue. The Global South including that of China.

2024.7 台灣銀行家 95

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