Page 49 - NO.155銀行家雜誌
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中國清零政策                                                全球仍然處在一個艱難的、尚未完全走
              為全球經濟投入不確定因子                                     出疫情陰影的環境中，亞洲重新開放的影響
                                                               有望超越歐美，為全球許多行業注入一些難
                  不過，中國的疫情清零政策持續到何                             得的樂觀情緒。航空、酒店、鐵路和旅遊消
              時，對於亞洲和世界而言仍然難以預測。自                              費從較低的基數反彈，成為獲益最大的幾個

              2020年以來，中國的出境遊客人數幾乎消                             行業。雖然，亞洲公司是週期性的最大受益
              失。疫情之前，中國遊客每年在世界各地的                              者，但是全球企業在亞洲的業務也將得到提
              消費超過2,500億美元，亞洲許多經濟體的旅                           振。亞洲也是時候該擺脫疫情的拖累，重新
              遊相關產業在很大程度上依賴中國，通過其                              成為世界結構性增長的源泉，人口增長和
              他管道很難完全彌補這些損失。防疫期間的                              中產階級崛起等積極因素並沒有因為疫情
              不確定性也削弱了中國居民對國內旅遊的情                              而改變。最大的不確定性是中國何時結束
              緒，旅遊收入占GDP的比例從2019年的5.8%                         清零政策，這是形成週期性反彈的最重要
              下降到2022年第二季的2.1%。因此，即使中                          經濟因素之一，不僅對於中國自己，對亞洲
              國未來放鬆出入境限制，如果國內出行和流                              和世界來說也是如此。（本文作者為法國外

              動限制仍然存在，重建中國遊客出國旅遊的                              貿銀行亞太首席經濟學家、台灣金融研訓院
              意願可能還需要很長時間。                                     資深顧問）




              most of their revenue comes from Asia.                In a world filled with pessimism, Asia's reopening
                  Still, China's zero-COVID policy is a big mystery   will leapfrog Europe and the US trends and bring rare
              in Asia and the world in the face of reopening. The   optimism in many sectors globally. Airlines, hospitality,
              number of outbound Chinese tourists has vanished   railway and travel spending are the clear winners and

              since 2020. Before that, Chinese tourists used to spent   will rebound from a low base. While Asian firms are the
              more than $250 billion around the world annually.   biggest beneficiaries cyclically, global firms will also
              Many economies in Asia have a large reliance on   receive a boost for their businesses in the region. It is
              China for their tourism related sectors, and it is hard   also time for Asia to dismiss the drag from COVID and
              to fully compensate the losses. The uncertainties in   be the source of structural growth to the world again.
              lockdowns has also damped the sentiment of Chinese   The positive factors, such as population growth and
              residents in domestic tourism with the share of tourism   the rising middle class, have not changed due to the
              revenue to GDP falling from 5.8% in 2019 to 2.1% in   pandemic. The greatest uncertainty is when China will
              Q2 2022. Therefore, even if China's border restrictions   open up and phrase out its zero-COVID policy. It is

              are relaxed in the future, it may take a long time to   one of the most important economic factors shaping
              rebuild Chinese tourists' willingness to travel abroad if   the cyclical rebound, not only in China but also in Asia
              internal mobility control measures remain in place.  and the world.





                                                                                           台灣銀行家2022.11月號 49








        JOEE
   1                  5%     JOEE                                                                                        ɪʹ
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