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近年來金融業最重要的變化:EGS(環境、 特瑞謝認為這種現象可能即將結束。投
社會、治理)自然也受到大量關注,而且因為 資環保科技的研發製造,以及用更環保的新
最近許多國家都在考慮宣布疫情結束,這個問 技術代替折舊的機具,可以防止經濟陷入停
題更為重要。 滯性通膨,在這種情況下,只要實體經濟繼
續成長,實質利率可能就會回升。
悖論可能即將終結 如果走向這樣的發展,目前的高儲蓄、
低投資時代就會結束。儲蓄過剩的明顯現象
本屆主題演講來自歐洲央行前主席尚-克 之一,是亞洲資金大量流入開發中國家;但
勞德˙特瑞謝(Jean-Claude Trichet),他 這背後的原因卻不只是國際資本自由流動,
認為人類可能即將擺脫勞勃˙梭羅(R o b e r t 開發中國家希望能在未來幾十年沿著西方國
Solow)所說的生產力悖論。梭羅是提出新古 家的道路邁向經濟繁榮,所以本來就聚集了
典經濟成長理論的經濟學家,曾說過「也許未 全球最多的投資需求。
來每個角落都會進入數位時代,但經濟成長 聯合國氣候金融特使馬克˙卡尼(M a r k
數據不會。」過去的各種經濟活動,如今都 Carney)也提出一些數據,支持特瑞謝的說
轉換成數位形式,然後轉移到線上;但這些 法。卡尼指出,如果要將全球氣候暖化幅度
0
活動數位化之後,需要投入的資本還是跟類 壓在1.5 C以內,大概就必須在未來30年內投
比時代一樣多,再不然就是無法達成預期的 資150兆美元,也就是每年投資5兆美元,相當
經濟成長。 於全球GDP的2%。
analysis, the financial effects of climate mitigation ESG principles represent one of the most
could therefore reach the scale of trends like profound recent changes in finance, and naturally
globalization, inequality, and demographic aging. received a great deal of attention over the two
This insight came from one of the wide- days, particularly as policy makers think about
ranging discussions at the 2022 Asian Financial building back from the pandemic.
Forum (AFF), held virtually on January 10 and 11 in
Hong Kong. This was the 15th AFF; previous years An end to several paradoxes
have focused on Asian topics, but this year took a
more global approach with the theme of “navigating In his keynote session, Jean-Claude
the next normal towards a sustainable future.” Trichet, former President of the European Central
Presenters spoke about everything from short-term Bank suggested a possible imminent end to
financial outlook and the future of banking to Hong the productivity paradox attributed to the growth
Kong’s international status. theorist Robert Solow, who once said that “you can
台灣銀行家2022.3月號 9
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