Page 11 - 銀行家雜誌第83期

地產投資）iږፄࠬᅳԴவ €ྡ 3ߕ਷΢௅ژٙ௵ቱᎷႅ̕ GDP ˢଟ
Ԭҳ༟٫ႆաࠠɽٙৌਕא as a ratio to nominal GDP, Ĉ , quarterly
ৌ బ ฦ ̰f މ ə Ꮞ ໾ ᑦ ฦe 10 Households (Financial Surplus)
ҷ ഛ ৌ ਕ ً رe ࠠ ܔ ৌ బd Rest of the World Private sector
5 savings 4.42%
Άุၾ࢕ࢬεጐ฽̘࿳૖ʷ of GDP
(average 5.06%
（De-leveraging）dಯˇҳ༟e 0 since 2008)
ऊ൬ၾፄ༟࠾ಛfږፄዚ࿴މ
əᏎ໾ږፄࠬᅳ੭Ըʘฦ̰e -5
ҷഛՉ༟ପࠋවഐ࿴d͵ᐵಯ General
-10 Corporate Sector Government
࿁̮׳ಛfϤɚ˙ࠦٙሜ዆d (Non-Financial Sector+
Financial Sector ) IT Bubble Housing
΍ΝኬߧცӋʘɨࠥdආϾԴ -15 (Financial Deficit) Bubble
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
዆ࡈ຾᏶௘ɝࣚ˚ٝΤ຾᏶ኪ Note:All entries are four-quarter moving averages. For the latest figures, four- quarter averages ending in 2016 Q1 are used.
Sources:FRB, US Department of Commerce
٫ඁಃ׼הፗٙ˜༟ପࠋවڌ
͉ྡˏІjRichard Koo, ©Surviving in the Intellectually Bankrupt Monetary Policy Environment©,
ό ʘ স ৗ ™（Balance-sheet Nomura Research Institute, August 2016.
recession）f
ඁಃ׼ה౤̈ٙ˜༟ପࠋව ცӋൂᐵٙ˴ࠅϓΪdᒔϞ˸ ݁ഄ˙Σʘɓd͵ҵՓəʕ਷
ڌόʘসৗ™d࿁˚͉О˸І ɨ఻ᓃj ٙҳ༟ცӋf
1990 ϋ˾ৎ௘ɝ˜̰ໝٙ 20 1. ִ݁ৌ݁˕̈ᒈ׵ڭςf 3. ɛɹϼʷၾה੻ʱৣె
ϋ™dϞ฽ՈႭ؂ɢٙ༆ᙑf ટᚃίΌଢږፄऎᄟܝᖑ೯ٙ ʷf஢ε਷࢕ٙɛɹᒈ׵ϼ
ྡ 2 ᜑͪ˚͉ٙڢږፄΆุ ᆄݲ˴ᛆවਕΚዚd˸ʿᅃ਷ ʷd ͏ ଺ ਿ ׵ ቮ ϼ ʘ ც ࠅd

௅ژٙ࠾ಛ̕ GDP ˢଟdί ࿁ᖢ਄ৌ݁ʘ਺ܵdԴ੻΢਷ ɗ ಯ ˇ ऊ ൬e ᄣ ̋ Ꮇ ႅf ɦ
1990ϋʘۃၾʘܝϞ฽މࠠɽ ִ݁ٙৌ݁˕̈ԐΣڭςf 1980 ϋ˾˸Ըٙ຾᏶І͟ʷ
ٙᜊʷfϤ̮d༈ˢଟίږፄ 2. ɽ௔຾᏶ϓڗಯ஺ၾ˜̘ ၾږፄΌଢʷഃΪ९d੭Ըה
ऎᄟܝΎϣ̈ତࠋᅰf ପঐ™dࠥЭΌଢცӋਗঐf ੻ʱৣᘌࠠʔѩʘਓЪ͜f͟
ྡ 3 ɰ૶ูᜑͪdߕ਷ٙ͏ ʕ਷ɽ௔࿁Όଢ຾᏶ϓڗ্ٙ ׵ஷ੬৷ה੻٫ٙᗙყऊ൬හ
ග௅ژ（尤其是家庭部門）d ᘠ ଟd ί 2009 Ї 2011 ϋ ΣdˢЭה੻٫މЭd݂ה੻
І2007ϋϣ൲ࠬᅳᖑ೯ʘܝd ಂ ග ൴ ཀ 50 Ĉd2015 ϋ ʥ ʱৣెʷɰϞࠥЭ዆᜗ऊ൬ٙ
͟׵̘࿳૖ʷʘЪ͜d௵ቱᎷ ༺ 30Ĉi࿁΢၇਷ყࡡيࣘ Ъ͜f
ႅ（financial surplus）̕ GDP ცӋʘ̕ˢd͵֢৷ʔɨfڐ ࠦ࿁Ϥɓପঐཀ௵e˞ॹࠠ

ˢଟϞɽషܓٙ౤ʺf ఻ϋɽ௔ϓڗಯ஺dᒕɝ˜อ ɽҦஔ߉ॎd˲ɦცӋൂᐵٙ
੬࿒™dᘌࠠᅂᚤ਷ყ౻ं˸ ຾᏶ѢྤdΌଢᏐ༈νОΪ
ცӋൂᐵٙՉ˼ኬΪ ʿࡡيࣘცӋၾᄆࣸfϤ̮d Ꮠk Ϟ ೌ ୭ Ѣ ̙ ঐk ν О ୭
І 2016 ϋ઼ਗٙ˜Զഗਉҷ Ѣkࠢ׵ᇐషd࢙ɨϣމ˖ᘱ
ৰə̘࿳૖ʷʘላᏘdኬߧ ࠧ™dਗ਼˜̘ପঐ™ΐމࠠࠅ ᚃীሞf

̨ᝄვБ࢕ 2016.11 ˜໮ 11